How I pick the horses
An excuse explains the last race. What I want to know is what's changed for this one, and whether the price still makes sense.
Read how it worksThe bookmakers closed my accounts for winning on favourites.
So I took them to the exchange.
I'm Lee. Every morning I go through the fancied horses, cross out the ones that are short for the wrong reasons, and send you the two or three that are left. Short priced winners and secure places, one after another.
- Nearly 6 in every 10 of my bets win
- A further 74% of my place bets land
- +162 points since January 2024
- Every bet at Betfair Starting Price.
High strike rateNearly 6 in every 10 bets winSee every bet
Secure places74% of place bets landWin and place, explained
£18 made on every £100Return on stakes in 2026, after commissionExplore results
Betfair Exchange onlyEvery bet at starting price. Nobody limits youWhy the exchange
Historical replay of my rules, January 2024 to August 2026, at Betfair starting price after 2% commission. The 2026 figure is January to August.
Built to barely lose
Two horses out of three hundred
Around 300 horses run in Britain and Ireland on an average day, and you'll hear about two of them from me.
A horse is short in the betting for one of two reasons. Either it's the best horse in the race, or everyone remembers its last run. Only the first kind pays, and telling them apart is the whole job. So I start near the top of the market, where the form is honest and the money is deep, and I cross out every favourite that's short on reputation. What I'm after is a reason for today: a drop back in trip, say, or a weaker field, or first time cheekpieces from a yard in form.
If something has changed for the better, it goes on your list. If all I've got is a hard luck story, you never hear its name. You get the two I'd put my own money on, and I do.
The place bets I almost hit every time
Most horses on the list go on twice, a bet to win and a bet to place. The place bet is the quiet one. It lands 74% of the time, so it keeps your bank steady through the weeks when the winners are slow. The win bet is the loud one, and it's where the +162 points comes from.
The results pick the method, not me
I don't run one method and hope it holds. I run several, side by side, and I keep score on all of them.
Every three months I look at which has made the most over the last two years, with the recent months counting double, and that one gets the biggest stake for the quarter ahead. The decision is always made on bets that have already run. I never look at the winners first and then pick the method that would have found them.
Most days it's two horses. A big Saturday can bring more, but never more than four points of stakes in a day, so a busy card never becomes a big day of staking. One calm morning at a time, and no single bet ever decides your month.
17 of the last 20 months finished in profit
Written the way a racecard writes form. P is a month in profit, L a month down. The three Ls are there because they happened.
PJan 25
PFeb 25
PMar 25
PApr 25
LMay 25
PJun 25
PJul 25
PAug 25
LSep 25
POct 25
PNov 25
PDec 25
PJan 26
LFeb 26
PMar 26
PApr 26
PMay 26
PJun 26
PJul 26
PAug 26
Never two losers in a row. Historical replay of my rules at Betfair starting price after 2% commission. See the points for every month.
What betting on my shortlist looks like
16best winning streak, bets in a row
8longest losing run, in 2,162 bets
49racing days in a row with a winner
4most racing days ever without one
80 of 139weeks in profit
21 of 21twelve month windows in profit
Win bets land 41% at an average price of 3.26. Place bets land 74%. Four racing days in five had a winner.
Every one of the 2,162 bets is on the results page, losers included.
Have a look round
Every result, month by month
All 2,162 of my bets laid out like the old teletext pages. Flick through the months with the coloured buttons.
See the results
My story
Twenty odd years of betting on horses, and the spreadsheet that showed me which favourites were worth it.
Read my story
Why everything goes on at Betfair
Bookmakers cut my stakes the moment I started winning. On the exchange, nobody does.
Read the postWhat you'd need, and how it arrives
The bank and the stakes
- A 40 point bank. £200 at £5 a point, £400 at £10.
- Win bets are 1 point. A horse that fell last time but has the form to bounce back goes on at half a point. Place bets are a quarter or half. Every tip tells you the stake.
- Two horses most days, a few more on a big Saturday. Never more than four points in a day.
- The worst dip in the record took 27 of the 40 points. Keep the bank and a bad spell never worries you.
How the bets reach you
- By email every racing morning, before the first race.
- The same card on Telegram if you'd rather have it on your phone.
- Every past card and the running results in your members' area.
- On a quiet day, one line saying there's nothing on.
Everything at Betfair Starting Price, so there's no rush to get on.
We tip at Betfair Starting Price, feel free to stake £100+.
I only tip favourites on Betfair, so there's a lot of money available before the off. That's why a £500 bet doesn't move the price. And most importantly, you never get gubbed.
At a bookmaker
£20 on.
The price gets trimmed.
Your stakes get limited.
Account closed for winning. I've had it done.
On the Betfair Exchange
£500 on.
The same starting price as everyone.
Nobody limits you.
Winners you can actually get paid on.
£1,622 at £10 a point. £8,108 at £50.
What members say
"Member quote to come. One or two sentences in his own words, including a quiet week if he mentions one."
"Member quote to come. Something specific, like how the morning email fits round work."
The first members joined in October 2026. Their words go up here as they come in, with their say so.
See exactly what I do for two weeks.
For only £5.
Every bet I make, by email each racing morning, with the stake and my line on why. Pay £5 today, then £49 for the winter pass unless you cancel before day 15.
I email you before the charge. Cancel with one email back. Nothing renews after 31 March. Full details.
Pricing
Best value
Twelve months
£95 One payment. Flat season included.
£46 more than the winter pass
Join for a yearIf your first month on the £49 loses, I refund it. How the refund works.